November 9, 2021

“The dollar hovered a little below the year’s peaks this morning, while cryptocurrencies scaled records, as inflation numbers loom as the next test of traders’ thinking on the outlook for interest rates. Sterling, hammered last week when the BoE surprised markets by holding rates steady, had made a slight recovery as world bond markets pared back some aggressive bets on imminent higher interest rates.”

Tim Hallinan, Trading Director

Main Headlines

A committee in the US House of Representatives dedicated to investigating the assault on the US Capitol on January 6 issued six new subpoenas to allies of Trump. The subpoenaed individuals are accused of promoting misinformation about the 2020 presidential election, including the unfounded claim that the voting was rigged in favor of now-President Joe Biden and against Trump. Trump associates being subpoenaed include former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, campaign manager Bill Stepien, former adviser Jason Miller, national executive assistant to the campaign Angela McCallum, and lawyer John Eastman. Bernard Kerik, a former NYC police commissioner who allegedly bought hotel rooms serving as “command centers”, was also hit with a subpoena.

PM Johnson has been accused of “running scared” of scrutiny over his botched attempt to neuter parliament’s independent standards system, after he dodged a House of Commons debate on sleaze. Johnson blamed a long-standing appointment to visit a hospital in the north-east for him missing a three-hour emergency debate, sparked by his effort to create a Tory-dominated committee to rewrite sleaze rules after an ally was found guilty of paid lobbying. Former minister Owen Paterson quit as an MP last week after the PM U-turned on his plan, which would have got him off the hook for a 30-day suspension recommended by a standards watchdog and given him the chance to appeal.

GBP

The pound is higher than the dollar and lower than the euro overnight. An industry consortium led by Rolls-Royce and the British taxpayer will jointly pump £405m into the development of a fleet of mini-reactors as part of a new push into nuclear power designed to help the government meet its net zero carbon targets. Rolls-Royce said it had secured funding from US energy company Exelon Generation and privately held BNF Resources. The three partners will invest a total of £195m in a new business, Rolls-Royce Small Modular Reactor, over three years. The funding will trigger a commitment of £210m from the government, which is due to be announced by business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng today.

EUR

The euro is well bid against most majors in the early morning trade. Representatives from EU countries have agreed that the EC will be the sole enforcer of new tech rules, with a limited role for national antitrust watchdogs instead of the wider powers sought for them. EU ministers will formally ratify the agreement on Nov. 25 as part of the bloc’s common position ahead of negotiations with EU lawmakers and the Commission on the draft rules known as the Digital Markets Act (DMA) before they can become law. The DMA, proposed by EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager last year, aim to curb the powers of Alphabet’s unit Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon with a list of dos and don’ts.

USD

The dollar is lower than most majors this morning. The Federal Reserve warned in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report yesterday that stresses in the Chinese real estate sector “posed some risk to the US financial system”, pointing to heavily indebted property companies like Evergrande as a potential source of global contagion. On the domestic front, the Fed also warned that a “steep rise” in interest rates could lead to a “large” correction in risky assets, in addition to a reduction in housing demand that in turn could lead to lower home prices. Employment and investments could take a hit too as borrowing costs for business rose.

Markets

U.S. Treasury yields slipped Tuesday amid speculation about the leadership of the Federal Reserve, while stocks were mixed as a global equity rally paused. Treasuries rose, with shorter-maturities leading gains, following a report that Fed Governor Lael Brainard was interviewed for the central bank’s top job. Some commentators see a more dovish Fed under Brainard. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year Treasury inflation-protected securities slid to a record low, a sign of ongoing concerns about inflation risks in the global economy. MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific gauge was little changed, while U.S. futures fluctuated and European ones retreated. The S&P 500 eked out a gain to post its longest winning run since 2017, but a drop in Tesla Inc. weighed on the Nasdaq 100. The Fed in a report warned asset prices could slide if sentiment sours. Gold was at $1,823.41 an ounce.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times CET)

8:00 a.m.: Germany Sept. trade balance

8:45 a.m.: France Sept. trade balance

8:45 a.m.: Yi Gang, Nabiullina, Panetta, Rehn at Bank of Finland Seminar

9:00 a.m.: Hungary Oct. CPI

9:30 a.m.: Sweden Sept. industrial orders

11:00 a.m.: Germany Nov. ZEW economic growth survey

12:00 p.m.: Serbia Nov. repurchase rate

2:00 p.m.: Russia Oct. official reserve assets

2:30 p.m.: Ukraine Oct. CPI

6:00 p.m.: EIA releases short-term energy outlook Romania interest rate announcement Norges Bank publishes financial stability report Central bankers Powell, Bailey, Macklem, Schnabel at D&I conference EU finance ministers meet in Brussels

Corporate Events

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