Morning Report – Tuesday 3rd November
The US Election is today, and as of Monday 99 million ballots have already been cast, equivalent to 72 percent of the 2016 total. The result will not likely be announced on election night, as key battleground states; Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will not have counted their ballots in time.
The official result could be delayed by weeks as Democrats expect law suits preventing mail-in votes from being counted, which traditionally favour Democrats over Republicans. On Monday, judges in Texas and Nevada rejected a legal challenge to stop mail-in ballots from being counted. Trump has refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power.
Boris Johnson attempted to quell Conservative MPs in the House of Commons, by assuring them that after the four week lockdown, the country would return to regional restrictions. The Labour Party attacked Rishi Sunak for originally saying no to a national circuit breaker in mid-October.
The pound is trading relatively flat against the dollar and euro in early trading this morning. UK Manufacturing PMI data yesterday came in above expectations at 53.7, although this was below the September level of 54.1. Analysts are predicting a ‘W’ shaped recovery, as manufacturing will fall again in November due to the second lockdown.
The euro is rising against the dollar in early morning trading this morning. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in very strong at 54.7, a 27-month high, underpinned by German strength. ECB Governing Council member Knot is also set to speak this morning.
The dollar is falling against a host of major currencies, although it is rising against the Japanese Yen on the eve of the US election. The key states to watch on election night are Georgia and North Carolina which will give a good indication of what the story is, and later Florida could deliver a serious blow to the candidate that loses the state.
Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times GMT)
7:00 a.m.: Turkey Oct. CPI
7:30 a.m.: Switzerland Oct. CPI
8:00 a.m.: Riksbank’s Ingves speaks
8:20 a.m.: ECB’s Knot speaks (and again at 5:00 p.m.)
Euro-Area finance ministers meet
U.S. presidential election