Morning Report – Tuesday 20th October
The Supreme Court was divided 4-4 on the proposal to allow Pennsylvania mail-in ballots a 3 day extension after 3rd November. Four justices including both of those that Donald Trump has already elected, wanted to overrule the state’s highest court but was blocked in the absence of a 9th member.
Electoral candidates, Trump and Biden fussed over the next Presidential debate on Thursday. After the chaos of the first debate, the Debate Commission has decided to employ a ‘mute’ button for the non-speaking candidate. Donald Trump is reportedly angry that the chosen moderator is a “radical Democrat” and that foreign policy is not on the agenda. Joe Biden wanted the administration’s handling of the pandemic on the agenda as well.
The fiscal stimulus bill saga continues, and investors are hoping that a final decision is made before the election to stop the volatility in the market. On Monday, equities started on the back foot but jumped when Nancy Pelosi said that their differences were narrowing. Today is the deadline that Pelosi set for an agreed stimulus package before the election.
The pound is trading relatively flat against the euro and dollar this morning. David Frost and Michel Barnier will likely continue talks today after confusion yesterday when Michael Gove said that the U.K. would be walking away from negotiations, only to rescind those comments. Analysts have set the new probable ‘soft’ deadline as late-November where another EU Summit is scheduled.
The euro is slightly higher against the dollar in trading this morning. Ireland have become the latest EU country to increase Coronavirus restrictions, which could cost a possible 150,000 jobs, while France was rocked by a beheading of a French professor by an Islamist militant. The Eurozone are also set to price a new bond sale to help jobs support programmes during the crisis.
The dollar is trading higher against most major currencies, including the Japanese Yen. After a light day on the data front yesterday, US Housing starts are released later today and will give a good indication to the strength of the recovery, which is increasingly looking like it will not be ‘V’ shaped as expected. Markets will also be wary of fiscal stimulus talks ending today and the final US election debate on Thursday.
Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times BST)
7:00 a.m.: Germany Sept. PPI
9:00 a.m.: Euro-Area, Italy Aug. Current Account
10:30 a.m.: BOE’s Vlieghe speaks
12:50 p.m.: ECB’s Cos speaks
1:00 p.m.: Hungary rate decision
1:30 p.m.: US Housing Starts MoM
5:00 p.m.: Russia Sept. Unemployment,
Iraq Petroleum conference
BNEF Summit in London
Citi Global Resources Virtual Conference