Morning Report – Thursday 15th October
The EU Summit starts today, where the state of post-Brexit trade talks will be discussed. Boris Johnson set today as the deadline for a deal earlier in the year, but reversed his decision yesterday after talks with Ursula Von der Leyen. Large differences still remain and the summit will likely conclude that there has been insufficient progress.
Joe Biden and President Trump will be holding separate Town Halls instead of a debate that was scheduled for today. This will suit Biden, who leads in the polls, as he doesn’t have to go head-to-head against Trump. Trump is playing a defensive campaign, visiting states he won in 2016 rather than states he hopes to flip.
Equities dropped yesterday in the US and Asia, when Steve Mnuchin said that getting a stimulus bill before the election would be difficult. Both parties have blamed politics for getting in the way of negotiations over the past few months. It is also unlikely that Mitch McConnell’s narrow bill will be passed on such short notice.
The pound has depreciated against both the dollar and euro in early morning trading today. Boris Johnson will decide at the EU Summit today, whether to continue negotiating or walk away from a deal. He indicated yesterday that he wants to continue negotiations but the major differences from the past few weeks of negotiations, notably fisheries, still remain.
The euro is trading relatively flat against the dollar this morning, but is up against the pound. Yesterday, France imposed a curfew in 9 cities including Paris while Germany unveiled measures and threatened to increase restrictions if there is no significant fall in the infection rate over the next 10 days.
The dollar is trading higher against most major currencies, except the Japanese Yen this morning. This comes as investors react to the news that there will be no stimulus package before the election and also brace for separate town halls from both election candidates. Initial jobless claims will also be released later today for last week.
Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (BST)
7:45 a.m.: France Sept. CPI
9:00 a.m.: Italy Aug. Industrial Orders
10:50 a.m.: Hungary one-week deposit rate
1:30 p.m.: U.S. Oct Empire Manufacturing, Initial Jobless Claims
2:00 p.m.: BOE’s Cunliffe speaks
4:00 p.m.: EIA oil inventories
5:00 p.m.: ECB’s Lagarde speaks
5:00 p.m.: Russia Sept. Industrial Production
EU leaders summit in Brussels
Bloomberg India Economic Forum, speakers include Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar