Morning Report – Monday 9th November
Joe Biden was confirmed as ‘President Elect’ of the United States on Saturday morning after winning Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral college votes. Donald Trump has, as of yet, refused to concede and will pursue legal challenges over counting of fraudulent mail-in ballots in key battleground states, including Pennsylvania.
A victory for Biden, combined with Republican control of the Senate has led to a risk-on signal for assets, especially for Big Tech companies. A Republican Senate means the threat of tax hikes is moot, however the prospect of a large fiscal stimulus bill has also diminished.
Turkish President Erdogan’s son-in-law resigned as finance minister due to ‘health reasons’ the day after Erdogan fired the Central Bank Governor. The Turkish Lira is the worst performing global currency in 2020, having lost 30 percent of its value since the start of the year, which may be due to the fact that the Turkish Central Bank suffers from regular interventions from the Government, who is against raising interest rates.
The pound is trading relatively flat against the dollar and the euro in early morning trading. Boris Johnson had a call with European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen over the weekend, to plan a path to the 15th November Brexit deadline. Johnson is also set to lose a vote in the House of Lords over removing clauses in the controversial internal market bill.
The euro is unchanged against the dollar this morning holding firm at levels last seen in early September. There is a host of ECB members speaking today, including ECB President Lagarde and a virtual conference of EU foreign ministers on the bloc’s trade relationship with the US following the presidential election.
The dollar is trading lower against a set of major currencies, and is at its lowest level since August. The day and upcoming week will be dominated by fallout from the US election, as there is little to no economic data on the docket. Joe Biden has announced that his relationship with the UK will not be a priority for his administration in his first 100 days. Biden’s main focus is on controlling the Coronavirus pandemic.
Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times GMT)
7:00 a.m.: Germany Sept. Trade
9:25 a.m.: ECB’s Lagarde speaks
9:30 a.m.: Euro-Area Sentix Investor Confidence
12:00 p.m.: ECB’s Mersch speaks
Brexit trade-deal talks continue in London
ADIPEC 2020 Virtual Strategic Conference
BOE’s Bailey, Haldane speak