Morning Report – Friday 24th July

Main Headlines

Gold traded near $1,900 an ounce, edging closer to its all-time high set nearly nine years ago, as concerns about global growth buoyed haven demand. Increasing signs that the prolonged coronavirus pandemic is stalling an economic recovery and the recent surge in tensions between the U.S. and China are underpinning demand for the metal. Bullion is heading for a seventh weekly gain, the longest stretch since 2011, while silver is poised for its biggest weekly gain for almost forty years.

European and U.S. stock futures were sold off with Asian equities amid escalating geopolitical tensions and gloomy U.S. economic news. China’s benchmarks fell more than 2% and the yuan slid with the Aussie and won. The yen rallied. Industrial metals slid but oil remained supported.

GBP

Sterling is range bound after the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator said that the UK had shown no willingness to break the deadlock on talks over a new trade agreement. Speaking after this week’s round of negotiations in London, Michel Barnier said there has been no progress at all on the question of ensuring fairness on state aid. The game of brinkmanship is likely to continue throughout Q3 and into Q4.

EUR

The euro remains well supported and the market will get a better idea how quickly the economy is recovering today. Consensus sees composite PMI for July showing expansion for the first time since February, with both the manufacturing and services gauges moving above 50.

USD

The dollar slide has taken a pause as tensions escalated after China ordered the United States to shut its Chengdu consulate in retaliation for the closure of its consulate in Texas. Markets have so far been relieved that no flashpoint has yet prompted either side to abandon the trade deal, but are beginning to view it as a real risk.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times BST)

7:00 a.m.: U.K. June retail sales
8:15 a.m.: France July PMIs
8:30 a.m.: Germany July PMIs
9:00 a.m.: Euro-area July PMIs
9:00 a.m.: Italy July consumer confidence, manufacturing confidence
9:30 a.m.: U.K. July PMIs
11:00 a.m.: U.K. to sell bonds
11:30 a.m.: Bank of Russia rate decision
2:00 p.m.: Belgium business confidence
3:00 pm.: U.S. New Home Sales
6:00 p.m.: Baker Hughes rig count
6:30 p.m.: ICE Futures Europe weekly Commitments of Traders report

Corporate Events

Earnings include Vodafone, Equinor, Thales, Honeywell, Schlumberger, Verizon, American Express