Morning Report – Friday 23rd October
President Trump and Joe Biden met for the final Presidential debate yesterday. The pair traded, comparatively orderly, blows on the Coronavirus, Foreign Policy and Healthcare. Each candidate blamed the other for slow progress on a fiscal stimulus package.
The U.K. managed to secure its first major post-Brexit trade deal with Japan, which was signed early this morning. The deal will take effect on 1st January and mostly replicates the existing EU-Japan deal but has an extra chapter on digital trade and doesn’t include agricultural export quotas.
Nancy Pelosi once again said that a fiscal stimulus deal is close but time has probably run out to conclude a package before the election. The differences reportedly remain as large as $300 billion. Meanwhile, the Senate Judiciary Committee have advanced Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination to a vote by the upper house.
The pound is trading lower against the dollar and is flat against the euro. Brexit talks are set to continue today, and every day, until mid-November and Michel Barnier said that he will seek concessions on fisheries from European leaders on behalf of the U.K.. October’s PMI for services and manufacturing are also released this morning.
The euro is lower against the dollar in early morning trading today. Governments across the continent are discussing further restrictions as cases continue to rise, such as France where new daily cases rose above 40,000 for the first time. Eurozone composite PMI’s are released today, where they are expected to fall below 50 into recessionary territory.
The dollar is trading relatively flat against most major currencies this morning, however is falling against the Japanese Yen. The US election debate concluded without any major talking points and Biden is expected to maintain his lead in the polls. The day is light on the economic data front, and so investors will be focused on fallout from the debate and the failing fiscal stimulus bill.
Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times BST)
7:00 a.m.: U.K. Sept. Retail Sales
8:15 a.m.: France Oct. PMIs
8:30 a.m.: Germany Oct. PMIs
9:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Oct. PMIs
9:30 a.m.: U.K. Oct. PMIs
11:30 a.m.: Russia rate decision
12:00 p.m.: Bank of Russia’s Nabiullina speaks
2:45 p.m.: U.S. Oct. PMIs
3:00 p.m.: BOE’s Ramsden chairs financial stability event
6:00 p.m.: Baker Hughes rig count
Greece, Italy, U.K. sovereign debt rated by S&P