September 24, 2021

“The dollar settled near its lowest level in a week versus major currencies on Friday, due to improved risk sentiment wiped out recent progress for the greenback and easing concerns about the contagion from a potential China Evergrande default boosted Asian currencies.”

Tim Hallinan, Trading Director

Main Headlines

Center for Disease Control Chief, Rochelle Walensky has overruled the decision by a CDC Agency Panel to limit boosters of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The CDC Chief has endorsed additional doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for health care workers, teachers and other works at risk. This comes as a boost to President Biden’s campaign to give a broad segment of Americans access to booster shots. The White House has previously been criticised for jumping ahead of the regulatory process. The White House could begin promoting and rolling out a plan for booster shots as soon as Friday. That would be in keeping with the administration’s previously announced plan to offer the additional doses this week.

Rishi Sunak has ordered two immediate reviews of UK financial regulation related to the collapse of Greensill Capital. In a letter to a parliamentary committee that issued a report in July related to Greensill’s collapse, released on Friday by the same committee, Sunak said he had accepted its call for reform of the mechanism used by Greensill, known as the “appointed representatives’ regime”. Sunak said in the letter, first reported by the Financial Times, that the Treasury had already started to review the regime, including legislative reforms to strengthen the oversight of appointed representatives to prevent opportunities for abuse of the system.

GBP

Sterling is well-bid against most majors overnight. Labour leader Keir Starmer has written a 12,000-word essay in which he dubbed the term the “contribution society”, emphasizing the values of hard work, and partnerships between the state and private sector. He eschewed references to socialism and promised to support business and maintain fiscal discipline in a 35-page essay setting out his political ethos. Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, is under growing Tory pressure to soften the impact of rising living costs, fearing voter backlash from rising costs for citizens, as food prices and energy prices rise and inflation approaches 4%. The UK reported 36,710 coronavirus cases on Thursday.

EUR

The euro is lower against most majors in early morning trade. Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) have maintained a small but steady lead in polls over the past few weeks, and the party’s chancellor candidate, Olaf Scholz, has already stated his intention to form a coalition with the currently third-placed Greens. But given Germany’s fractured political landscape, the SPD and Greens would need a third partner to be able to form a coalition. The third party would look likely to be Christian Lindner, the leader of the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) is likely to find himself as the kingmaker, playing a key role in coalition talks.

USD

The dollar is lower against sterling and higher against the euro overnight. The US Special Representative to Haiti has resigned in protest at what he described as the Biden administration’s “inhumane, counterproductive” decision to deport thousands of Haitian migrants, fleeing the crisis-torn country into the Southern United States after the earthquake in August. The US arrested Mark Gyetvay, finance chief of Russian natural gas group, Novatek, charged with tax fraud connected to $93mn in offshore accounts. The Department of Justice alleged that Mr. Gyetvay allegedly schemed to defraud the US government by hiding ownership and control in substantial overseas assets.

Markets

Stocks and sovereign bond yields climbed Friday on optimism about the economic outlook, though uncertainty lingers about potential risks from the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group. MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific index rose for a second day, led by Japan. Shares were muted in Hong Kong and China. U.S and European futures were little changed after the S&P 500’s biggest two-day gain since July. Oil was above $73 a barrel. The prospect of tighter monetary policy spurred a global selloff in bonds. Long-term Treasury yields have surged the most in 18 months as traders brought forward expectations for the first Fed rate hike to the end of 2022. Yields jumped on sovereign debt in Australia and New Zealand.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)

9:30 a.m.: Sweden Aug. PPI

10:00 a.m.: Germany Sept. IFO survey

10:00 a.m.: Italy Sept. manufacturing confidence, consumer confidence

11:00 a.m.: Italy to sell linkers, bonds

12:00 p.m.: U.K. to sell bills

1:00 p.m.: Norges Bank Deputy Governor Wolden Bache speech

1:50 p.m.: ECB’s Elderson speaks

3:15 p.m.: ECB’s Lane speaks

4:00 p.m.: BOE’s Tenreyro speaks

7:00 p.m.: Baker Hughes U.S. rig count

Moody’s to rate Sweden, Hungary sovereign debt

S&P to rate Germany sovereign debt

Fitch to rate Belgium, Cyprus and Iceland sovereign debt

Biden hosts Quad meeting with leaders from India, Japan and Australia

Corporate Events

Earnings include Carnival, Kabel Deutschland Holding, Banque Centrale Populaire

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