February 9, 2023

“The US Dollar has been struggling against other leading currencies on the back of the decline of US Treasury bond yields. Later in the day, the European Commission will release its economic growth projections. Additionally, the proceedings of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Hearings, which will include a testimony by Governor Bailey at the Treasury Select Committee, will be closely watched.”

Sam Cornford, Partner – Head of Trading

Main Headlines

Yesterday, the US House of Representatives passed legislation to remove the requirement for most foreign air travellers to be vaccinated against COVID-19. This requirement was one of the few remaining pandemic travel restrictions currently in place. In June of this year, the Biden administration eliminated the mandate for air travellers arriving in the United States to present a negative COVID test result. However, the vaccination requirements for the majority of foreign travellers have yet to be lifted.

According to the latest monthly report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), the UK saw a decline in property sales and house prices in January, as well as a reduction in new buyer demand and fresh listings. The net balance of new buyer inquiries was -47%, down from -40% in December, marking the ninth consecutive negative monthly reading. A recent report indicated that there is an increase in demand for rental homes, while the number of available listings from landlords is declining.

GBP

Sterling is well bid against most major currencies overnight. In a recent development, the Fire Brigades Union announced that firefighters in the UK have postponed strike action to vote on an improved pay offer. The new proposal includes a 7% pay increase retroactive to July of last year, as well as an additional 5% increase from July 1st of this year. The union will now conduct a ballot among its members to gauge their stance on the offer.

EUR

Euro is stronger against the dollar and weaker against sterling this morning. The latest preliminary data from the federal statistics office in Germany showed that consumer prices, as harmonised for comparison with other European Union countries, rose by 9.2% on a yearly basis in January, lower than the expected 10.0%. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.5%. Non-harmonised data showed a yearly increase of 8.7% and a monthly increase of 1.0%.

USD

The dollar is weaker than most major currencies in the early morning trade. President Biden has expressed his belief that the US economy will not enter a recession in the next two years, despite concerns and warnings from economists. Despite the recent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve aimed at controlling inflation, Biden reassured the public by stating that the risk of a recession is very low.

Markets

The European markets opened higher this morning, with the Stoxx 600 index rising 0.8% and most sectors and major bourses in positive territory. US stock futures also saw a slight increase, while the Asia-Pacific region experienced mixed results. The focus of investors remains on the economic outlook and interest rate trajectory.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)

8:00 a.m.: Germany Jan. CPI
9:30 a.m.: Riksbank policy rate
10:30 a.m.: Bank of Italy releases monthly statistics
10:45 a.m.: BOE’s Bailey testifies in Parliament
3:00 p.m.: Poland central bank’s Glapinski speaks
6:00 p.m.: ECB’s Nagel speaks
7:00 p.m.: ECB’s De Cos and Guindos speak
Romania rate decision
EU leaders summit in Brussels, ECB’s Christine Lagarde to participate
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers the State of the Nation address.

Corporate Events

Earnings include L’Oreal, AstraZeneca, Unilever, S&P Global, British American Tobacco, Duke Energy, AbbVie, PepsiCo, Toyota, Nissan

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